Saturday, December 27, 2008

Halfway Report

We are now just past the halfway point in season 10, so it's time to take another look at who's been playing up to snuff and who's been falling down on the job in the American League.


No one has taken charge in this division. The NY Torrones hold a tenuous 3 game lead, currently being the only team playing above .500 ball at 44-39. They seem to really like home cookin', being 15 games over in the friendly confines as opposed to an awful 10 games under on the road. They are playing below their Exp Pct(.530 actual, .552 Exp). With the offense 2nd in RS and T3 in BA, they have slugged their way to most of their wins, since the pitching has been decidedly mediocre. Last season's division winner, the Norfolk Warheads are the opposite. They are 2nd in ERA and RA, but next to last in RS and 3rd from the bottom in BA. They are disappointing 41-42 and are also playing below expectations(.494-.521). Even though the Dover Demon Dawgs are playing sub .500 ball(39-44), they are actually exceeding their expected pct(.470-.424). The Columbus Clippers are currently bringing up ther rear at 38-45 and that is somewhat below where they should be(.458-.475). Close games have been killing this club(6-17 in 1-run games). Top to bottom there are only 6 games separating all 4 teams, so this division looks to be a dogfight all the way to the end.


At this point in the season, it looks as though the defending champion Minnesota Twinkies are again the class of the league. They have scored 57 more runs and hit 46 more HRs than any other team. Their pitching staff ranks 3rd in ERA and RA. That's a tough combo to beat and it's showing as they have opened up a 6 game lead in the division. That said, even at 23 games over .500(53-30), they are actually playing quite a bit below expectations(.639 act-.678 exp), but so far it's still plenty good enough. The Toronto Toros are having a very good season(11 games over, 47-36), but are in the wrong division. However they are right on the mark(.566-.566) and are still within shouting distance of the lead. Both Philly(.470-452) and Wichita(.458-449) are playing a bit over their expectations, but it's not nearly good enough with 2 of the leagues elite teams residing in the same division.


This division is shaping up as a 2 team race, with the Florida Sailfish and the New Orleans Freebeads currently tied for the lead at 48-35. Both teams have been playing over their heads to date(FL +.035, NO + .020). Florida has been good so far in 1-run games(14-8), but if they falter in this category it could be a telling factor in who comes out on top. Monterrey is just about right on the mark(.434-.430) while Louisville is actually .070 ahead of pace, but both teams look to be too far back to make a run this season.


This division looks to be a down-to-the-wire battle between Boise and the surprising San Jose Giants. Going by expectations SJ(.602A-621E) should be leading this division, but it's the Browncoats(.627A-.597E) who currently hold a 2 game lead. This may be because of Boise's better balance(4th ERA, 1st BA), but they also sport an excellent record in 1-run games(14-6). SJ is 1st in ERA, but 2nd from the bottom in BA and has been outscored by almost 50 runs by Boise. Unless this changes, Boise probably has enough pitching to slug their way to the division title. The Vancouver Villains are still within hailing distance at 7 games back, but are playing below expectations by .042(.542-.584). With their good offense and decent staff they could still be a factor here. The unfortunately named Taliban have the leagues worst record at 30-53, 22 games back and will be looking to spoil someone's playoff hopes the rest of the way.

That's how things stand at the halfway point. All 4 divisions are still up for grabs. We'll come back at about the 120 game mark and see it anyone has been able to take the bull by the horns.

No comments:

Post a Comment