Thursday, December 11, 2008

AL Over & Under Achievers at the 1/4 pole

Well, we have reached just over the 40 game mark in season 10. GB69 has posted and made a lot of owners eat their words. Are they tasty, guys? So, let's take a look at who is playing over their heads and who is performing like dawgs. This analysis is based on the actual winning pct as opposed to the expected pct based on Runs scored for vs against as shown in the advanced standings.

Everyone in the AL North is playing right about at a level that the RS/RA would suggest except for Wichita. While they are currently bringing up the rear in the division, the Posse is playing over .50(.425 to .373 pct) better than expected. The defending champion Twinkies have been the cream of the crop so far, scoring well over 100 runs more than they've given up(287-172). That's huge!

Well, after all the pre-season boasting, the AL East has been playing like the AL Least so far. Torrones and Dawgs are playing exactly as their Exp Pct suggests(mediocre and badly, respectively). Last seasons division winner Norfolk is under performing by .35 pct, but so far the biggest loser has been the Clippers, who are playing at .73 pct worse than they should. Is the Columbus mgr on the hot seat?

This division a currently a mess, with every team under .500. The really sad part is that 3 of the 4 teams are actually EXCEEDING their exp pct! Only New Orleans is playing slightly worse than expectations. Florida, Monterrey, & Louisville are all playing better than their RS/RA would suggest but all are still on the "south" side of .500. I'm really surprised by this since I expected Fla & NO to be powerhouses. Still plenty of time.

Strongest overall division so far. Championship contenders Boise and Vancouver, and vastly improved San Jose are all well above .500. Boise is overachieving by .52 pct. The Villains, at -.58 pct, are actually under performing, despite being 12 games over .500. The Giants are just about on the money, but the Taliban are -.61 and sporting the worst record in the AL at the moment. They have only given up 195 runs which is 6th in the league, but they can't plate any runs, having scored a league low 143 to date.

We'll come back at the halfway point and see how things have changed, or not, as the case may be.

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