Saturday, September 26, 2009

Season 13 AL North 1/4 pole analysis


Minnesota Twinkies- After finishing a distant 2nd to Toronto in the AL North last season, brentnet's Twinkies are intent on reclaiming the division crown this year. They currently sit atop the division with a 4 game lead. They are well ahead of their expected winning pct at the moment(.600 act-.546 exp). Always a powerhouse offensively, this year is no exception. They lead the lead in HRs(106) SLG(.536), and OPS(.884) and are 4th in RS(287). With that comes another league leading stat, however. They also lead in K's with 323. Minny is doing most of it's damage offensively. It's pitching staff has been respectable with most rankings in the middle to top 1/3 of the league. They can't be happy with a 5.37 ERA, though and the defense is 14th in the league with a .978 FPct & 39 Es. Leading the charge on offense are CF Gregg Foster(.333 & all 7 of the team's SBs), perennial Silver Slugger DH Gerry Allen(.331, 12 HR, 1.013 OPS), RF Kelly Ardoin(.313, .688 Slg, 14 HR, 1.069 OPS), & 2nd year 1B Billy Corey(19 HR, 51 RBI are both 2nd in the league). The Twinkies already have 5 players with double-digit HR totals. The starting pitchers include 3 time All Star Herman Cox, former All Star & Gold Glove T.J. Shaw, & up & comer Mel Pearson. 36 year old Miguel Acevedo, a 7 time All Star is handling full time closer duty for the first time since season 1, but is doing just fine so far with 11 saves in 11 tries. With long time rival Toronto having a down season, the road to the division title looks wide open for the Twinkies.

Wichita Waffle House Posse- While they may not be ready to compete for the division crown just yet, early season results for sccrplyr16's club are encouraging thus far. They finished 14 games under .500 last year, but are above .500 in the early going this season. So far the Posse is playing well above their Exp Pct(.511 act-.474 exp) having allowed 13 more runs than they have scored(247 RS-260 RA). Most offensive stats are average to a bit below. The .276 BA is 13th in the league. It's the pitching that has been the prime reason for their success so far. The ERA is 6th(4.97), WHIP T5th(1.49). The OAV(.288), OSLG(.481), & HR(76) will have to improve if they hope to maintain their upward swing. The defensive stats are right at the league average. Offensive stars include RF Dom Coscarart(.321, 11 HR, 8 SB), & C Justin Winston(14 HR). Huge FA signee SP Julio Cedeno(0-3, .320 OAV, 1.73 WHIP, 5.43 ERA) has been a big disappointment so far. 34 year old Matt Orosco(5-1, 3.79 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise. Placido Hernandez(403, 3.64 ERA) has been solid. Closer Fernando DeJesus(8 of 12 SV/OPP) has been a bit shaky after a solid season last year. The Posse appears to be headed in the right direction, but may still be a few years away.

Toronto Toros- goldenboy 69's Toros have always been a contender, having made the playoffs in every season in the league's history. That may be about to change as gb69 has proclaimed early on that this will be a rebuilding year. Currently, the Toros sit at 18-27, 9 games behind division leading rival Minnesota. Their EXP is right on the money(.400 act-.406 exp) based on 228 RS vs 276 RA. Toronto is still producing in some offensive categories, 4th in BA(.291), but the rest of the stats are well below their norm. The 228 RS ranks 13th, and that's putting too much strain on the pitching staff. And that staff has not responded. 12th in ERA(5.61), 13th in RA(276) offsets other stats that are at or better than the league average. The fielding pct(.980) and E's(34) have been sub-par, each ranking 12th. All is not bleak, however. There's still talent here. 3B Trevor Thebeau(.340) & DH Don Kroeger(.333, 1.019 OPS) have been pleasant surprises. 1B Ron Adams(.325, 9 HR) and RF Douglas Stokes(12 HR) have been solid. The problem has been not enough production to go with those high BAs. With only 2 pitchers on the staff with ERAs under 4(both are RPs), there is some work needed here. FA signee SP Mac Morris(2-4, 5.72 ERA) has been underwhelming thus far. 4 time All Star SP Felipe Vincente is 36 and, while still effective, is not a long term solution. Rookie Delino Morales may have some upside. Olmedo Molina is an up and comer. 6 time All star, 38 year old Julio Fuentes is handling the closer role(11 of 13 Sv/Opp), but is at the end of the road. There is not one pitcher on the staff at the moment with a winning record. Looks like gb69 has his work cut out for him to get this team back in contention.

Milwaukee alcoholics- jeff2106 took over this squad last year and has some work to do to turn this club around. Strangely, jeff signed 7 FA this off season that are all on the far side of 30! At 16-29, they are playing well below expectations(.356 act-,427 exp). There is not much to talk about offensively. BA is decent at .278. But OPB(.334, T15th), SLG(.433, 14th), OPS(.767, 14th), Runs(214, 15th), HR(57, 15th), BB(124, last) have room for improvement. At least they don't strike out much(244, 1st). Things are better on the pitching side. The alkies are 4th in ERA(4.83), 6th in OAV(.278) & RA(249) & T5th in HR(63). The fielding betrays the staff, however, sitting 13th in FPct(.979) and E's(36). Offensive stars include 2 time All Star 3B Pablo Chavez(.361, 10 HR), LF Abraham Fonda(.335, 8 HR, 6 SB), & 2B Javy Iglesias(.312, 10 HR). SP Russell Coomer stats(.233 OAV, .389 OSLG) would indicate better than his actual 2-6 record. Omar Navarro(4-3, 4.26 ERA) has been solid, but FA signee Pedro Matos(.378 OAV, 8.53 ERA) has been a disaster so far. This team is a ways away from contending at this point and needs a lot of new blood.

No comments:

Post a Comment